In this article, we present an overview of methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions. These methods are of particular interest in Bayesian filtering for discrete time dynamic models that are typically nonlinear and non-Gaussian. A general importance sampling framework is developed that unifies many of the methods which have been proposed over the last few decades in several different scientific disciplines. Novel extensions to the existing methods are also proposed.We showin particular how to incorporate local linearisation methods similar to those which have previously been employed in the deterministic filtering literature these lead to very effective importance distributions. Furthermore we describe a method which uses Rao-Blackwellisation in order to take advantage of the analytic structure present in some important classes of state-space models. In a final section we develop algorithms for prediction, smoothing and evaluation of the likelihood in dynamic models.
标签： sequential simulation posterior overview
上传时间： 2015-12-30
上传用户：225588
This a Bayesian ICA algorithm for the linear instantaneous mixing model with additive Gaussian noise [1]. The inference problem is solved by ML-II, i.e. the sources are found by integration over the source posterior and the noise covariance and mixing matrix are found by maximization of the marginal likelihood [1]. The sufficient statistics are estimated by either variational mean field theory with the linear response correction or by adaptive TAP mean field theory [2,3]. The mean field equations are solved by a belief propagation method [4] or sequential iteration. The computational complexity is N M^3, where N is the number of time samples and M the number of sources.
标签： instantaneous algorithm Bayesian Gaussian
上传时间： 2013-12-19
上传用户：jjj0202
This demo nstrates the use of the reversible jump MCMC simulated annealing for neural networks. This algorithm enables us to maximise the joint posterior distribution of the network parameters and the number of basis function. It performs a global search in the joint space of the parameters and number of parameters, thereby surmounting the problem of local minima. It allows the user to choose among various model selection criteria, including AIC, BIC and MDL
标签： This reversible annealing the
上传时间： 2015-07-18
上传用户：ma1301115706
The need for accurate monitoring and analysis of sequential data arises in many scientic, industrial and nancial problems. Although the Kalman lter is effective in the linear-Gaussian case, new methods of dealing with sequential data are required with non-standard models. Recently, there has been renewed interest in simulation-based techniques. The basic idea behind these techniques is that the current state of knowledge is encapsulated in a representative sample from the appropriate posterior distribution. As time goes on, the sample evolves and adapts recursively in accordance with newly acquired data. We give a critical review of recent developments, by reference to oil well monitoring, ion channel monitoring and tracking problems, and propose some alternative algorithms that avoid the weaknesses of the current methods.
标签： monitoring sequential industria accurate
上传时间： 2013-12-17
上传用户：familiarsmile
Sequential Monte Carlo without Likelihoods 粒子滤波不用似然函数的情况下 本文摘要:Recent new methods in Bayesian simulation have provided ways of evaluating posterior distributions in the presence of analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions. Despite representing a substantial methodological advance, existing methods based on rejection sampling or Markov chain Monte Carlo can be highly inefficient, and accordingly require far more iterations than may be practical to implement. Here we propose a sequential Monte Carlo sampler that convincingly overcomes these inefficiencies. We demonstrate its implementation through an epidemiological study of the transmission rate of tuberculosis.
标签： Likelihoods Sequential Bayesian without
上传时间： 2016-05-26
上传用户：离殇
