util_xxz.java

销售预测的实现,包括移动平均,指数平滑,时间序列分解,自回归

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package forcast;

/**
 *
 * @author Administrator
 */
public class Util_xxz {
	public static int I=2,M=4,L=1;
	public static double land=0.1,thi=0.6;
	public static double wji[][]=new double[M][];
	public static double wji_b[][]=new double[M][];
	public static double wkj[][]=new double[L][];
	public static double wkj_b[][]=new double[L][];
	public  static double xigk[]=new double[L];
	public  static double aj[]=new double[M];
	public  static double ak[]=new double[L];
	public static void init()
	{

			wkj[0]=new double[]{4,0.3,1,5};


		for(int i=0;i<L;i++)
		{
			wkj_b[i]=new double[]{4,0.3,1,5};
		}
		/*for(int i=0;i<M;i++)
		{
			wji[i]=new double[]{1,1};
		}*/

		wji[0]=new double[]{1,0.1};
		wji[1]=new double[]{1,0.3};
		wji[2]=new double[]{6.5,0.3};
		wji[3]=new double[]{1.5,4.3};
		wji_b[0]=new double[]{1,0.1};
		wji_b[1]=new double[]{1,0.3};
		wji_b[2]=new double[]{6.5,0.3};
		wji_b[3]=new double[]{1.5,4.3};
		/*for(int i=0;i<M;i++)
		{
			wji_b[i]=new double[]{0,1};
		}*/
	}
	public static void bp(double ai[],double yk[])
	{


		for(int j=0;j<M;j++)
		{
			//middleTrainer(j,aj[j],ai);
			aj[j]=f1(ai,thi,wji[j]);


		}
		for(int k=0;k<L;k++)
		{
			//outTrainer(k,yk[k],ak[k]);
			ak[k]=f1(aj,thi,wkj[k]);
		//	System.out.println(ak[k]);

		}

		for(int j=0;j<M;j++)
		{
			middleTrainer(j,aj[j],ai);
			//aj[j]=f1(ai,thi,wji[j]);


		}
		for(int k=0;k<L;k++)
		{
			outTrainer(k,yk[k],ak[k]);
			//ak[k]=f1(aj,thi,wkj[k]);
		//	System.out.println(ak[k]);

		}



	}
	public static void outTrainer(int k,double yk,double ak)//yk教师，ak输出,aj隐层输出
	{
		xigk[k]=ak*(1-ak)*(yk-ak);
		//System.out.print("("+yk+":"+ak+":"+xigk[k]+")");
		for(int j=0;j<M;j++)
		{
			double temp=wkj[k][j];
			wkj[k][j]=wkj[k][j]+xigk[k]*land*aj[j]+ak*(wkj[k][j]-wkj_b[k][j]);
			wkj_b[k][j]=temp;
		}
	}
	public static void middleTrainer(int j,double aj,double ai[])//yk教师，ak输出
	{
		double sum=0;
		for(int k=0;k<L;k++)
		{
			sum=sum+wkj[k][j]*xigk[k];
			//System.out.print(":"+xigk[k]+":");
		}
		double xigj=aj*(1-aj)*sum;
		//System.out.print(":"+aj+":");
		for(int i=0;i<I;i++)
		{
			double temp=wji[j][i];

			wji[j][i]=wji[j][i]+xigj*land*ai[i]+aj*(wji[j][i]-wji_b[j][i]);
			wji_b[j][i]=temp;
		}
	}
	public static double f1(double[] x,double thi,double[] w )
	{
		float sum=0;
		for(int i=0;i<x.length;i++)
		{
			sum+=x[i]*w[i];
		}
		return 1/(1+Math.exp(-sum+thi));
	}
	public static double result(double ai[])//yk教师，ak输出
	{

		for(int j=0;j<M;j++)
		{

			aj[j]=f1(ai,thi,wji[j]);

		}
		for(int k=0;k<L;k++)
		{
			ak[k]=f1(aj,thi,wkj[k]);
			//System.out.println(ak[k]);

		}
		return ak[0];

	}
	public static void showW()
	{
		int k=0;
		for(k=0;k<L;k++)
		{
			for(int j=0;j<M;j++)
			{
			System.out.print(wkj[k][j]+"  ");
			}
			System.out.println("");
		}
		for(k=0;k<M;k++)
		{
			for(int j=0;j<I;j++)
			{
			System.out.print(wji[k][j]+"  ");
			}
			System.out.println("");
		}

	}

}