momentg.m

计量工具箱

function results = momentg(draws)
% PURPOSE: computes Gewke's convergence diagnostics NSE and RNE 
%          (numerical std error and relative numerical efficiencies)
% -----------------------------------------------------------------
% USAGE: result = momentg(draws)
% where: draws = a matrix of Gibbs draws (ndraws x nvars)
% -----------------------------------------------------------------
% RETURNS: a structure result:
%          result.meth     = 'momentg'
%          result.ndraw    = # of draws
%          result.nvar     = # of variables
%          result(i).pmean = posterior mean for variable i
%          result(i).pstd  = posterior std deviation
%          result(i).nse   = nse assuming no serial correlation for variable i
%          result(i).rne   = rne assuming no serial correlation for variable i
%          result(i).nse1  = nse using 4% autocovariance tapered estimate
%          result(i).rne1  = rne using 4% autocovariance taper
%          result(i).nse2  = nse using 8% autocovariance taper
%          result(i).rne2  = rne using 8% autocovariance taper
%          result(i).nse3  = nse using 15% autocovariance taper
%          result(i).rne3  = rne using 15% autocovariance taper
% -----------------------------------------------------------------
% SEE ALSO: coda(), apm()
% -----------------------------------------------------------------
% REFERENCES: Geweke (1992), `Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based
% approaches to the calculation of posterior moments', in J.O. Berger,
% J.M. Bernardo, A.P. Dawid, and A.F.M. Smith (eds.) Proceedings of
% the Fourth Valencia International Meeting on Bayesian Statistics,
% pp. 169-194, Oxford University Press
% Also: `Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: 
% Inference, development and communication', at: www.econ.umn.edu/~bacc
% -----------------------------------------------------------------

% written by:
% James P. LeSage, Dept of Economics
% University of Toledo
% 2801 W. Bancroft St,
% Toledo, OH 43606
% [e-mail]
 
% NOTE: this code draws heavily on MATLAB programs written by
% Siddartha Chib available at: www.econ.umn.edu/~bacc
% I have repackaged it to make it easier to use.

[ndraw nvar] = size(draws);
results.ndraw = ndraw;
results.meth = 'momentg';
results.nvar = nvar;

NG=100;

if ndraw < NG
error('momentg: needs a larger number of ndraws');
end;

ntaper=[4 8 15];
ns = floor(ndraw/NG);
nuse = ns*NG;

for jf = 1:nvar; % loop over all variables
cnt = 0;
cn = zeros(NG);
cd = zeros(NG);
cdn = zeros(NG);
cdd = zeros(NG);
cnn = zeros(NG);
cvar = zeros(NG);

% form sufficiency statistics needed below
td=0; tn=0; tdd=0; tnn=0; tdn=0; tvar=0;
for ig=1:NG;
gd=0; gn=0; gdd=0; gdn=0; gnn=0; gvar=0;
  for is = 1:ns;
  cnt = cnt + 1;
   g = draws(cnt,jf);
  ad = 1;
  an = ad*g;
  gd = gd+ad;
  gn = gn+an;
  gdn = gdn + ad*an;
  gdd = gdd + ad*ad;
  gnn = gnn + an*an;
  gvar = gvar + an*g;
  end; % end of for is
td = td+gd;
tn = tn+gn;
tdn = tdn+gdn;
tdd = tdd+gdd;
tnn=tnn+gnn;
tvar=tvar+gvar;

cn(ig)=gn/ns;
cd(ig)=gd/ns;
cdn(ig)=gdn/ns; 
cdd(ig)=gdd/ns;
cnn(ig)=gnn/ns;
cvar(ig)=gvar/ns;
end; %for ig

eg = tn/td;
varg = tvar/td - eg^2;
sdg = -1; 
if (varg>0); sdg=sqrt(varg); end;
% save posterior means and std deviations to results structure
results(jf).pmean = eg;
results(jf).pstd = sdg;

% numerical standard error assuming no serial correlation
     varnum=(tnn-2*eg*tdn+tdd*eg^2)/(td^2);
     sdnum=-1; if (varnum>0); sdnum=sqrt(varnum); end; 
% save to results structure
results(jf).nse = sdnum;
results(jf).rne = varg/(nuse*varnum);

%get autocovariance of grouped means
     barn=tn/nuse;
     bard=td/nuse;
     for ig=1:NG;
       cn(ig)=cn(ig)-barn;
       cd(ig)=cd(ig)-bard;
     end;
     for lag=0:NG-1;
        ann=0; add=0; and=0; adn=0;
        for ig=lag+1:NG;
           ann=ann+cn(ig)*cn(ig-lag);
           add=add+cd(ig)*cd(ig-lag);
           and=and+cn(ig)*cd(ig-lag);
           adn=adn+cd(ig)*cd(ig-lag);
        end; %ig
 % index 0 not allowed, lag+1 stands for lag
        rnn(lag+1)=ann/NG;
        rdd(lag+1)=add/NG;
        rnd(lag+1)=and/NG;
        rdn(lag+1)=adn/NG;
     end; %lag

% numerical standard error with tapered autocovariance functions
     for mm=1:3;
        m=ntaper(mm);
        am=m;
        snn=rnn(1); sdd=rdd(1); snd=rnd(1);
        for lag=1:m-1;
           att=1-lag/am;
           snn=snn+2*att*rnn(lag+1);
           sdd=sdd+2*att*rdd(lag+1);
           snd=snd+att*(rnd(lag+1) + rnd(lag+1)); 
        end; %lag
        varnum=ns*nuse*(snn-2*eg*snd+sdd*eg^2)/(td^2);
        sdnum=-1; 
        if (varnum>0); sdnum=sqrt(varnum); end;

     % save results in structure
     if mm == 1
     results(jf).nse1 = sdnum;
     results(jf).rne1 = varg/(nuse*varnum);
     elseif mm == 2
     results(jf).nse2 = sdnum;
     results(jf).rne2 = varg/(nuse*varnum);
     elseif mm == 3
     results(jf).nse3 = sdnum;
     results(jf).rne3 = varg/(nuse*varnum);
     end;

     end; % end of for mm loop

end; % end of loop over variables