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Date: Tue, 10 Dec 1996 15:17:46 GMTServer: NCSA/1.4.2Content-type: text/htmlLast-modified: Wed, 28 Feb 1996 00:57:32 GMTContent-length: 2189<html><head><title>Probabilistic Temporal Reasoning</title></head><body><h3>Probabilistic Temporal Reasoning</h3>Developing models of temporal reasoning (essentially, reasoning about dynamical systems) is just about as old as AIitself, and has been tackled using monotonic and non-monotoniclogical frameworks, and more recently using probabilistic models. <P>We are working on a probabilistic model that particularly addressesissues concerning <EM>endogenous change</EM>---situations in which the system changes state but not as a result of exogenous forces applied to the system. In our domain---medical prediction, diagnosis, and treatment decisions---an exogenous event would be a planned treatment or test, and an endogenous event would be something like internal bleeding causing vital signs to destabilize. We are workingon models that can be easily assessed from a human expert. <P>Another goal of the project is to understand the difference between the way Statisticians and Computer Scientists have approached the problem of temporal reasoning, and to say something interesting about causality in the process. <P>Other members of the team are:<UL><LI> <A HREF="http://www.stat.washington.edu:80/aumann/">Craig Aumann</A>, <A HREF="http://www.stat.washington.edu/">Department of Statistics</A>, <A HREF="http://www.washington.edu/">University of Washington</A><LI> Jonathan Gavrin, <A HREF="http://weber.u.washington.edu/~anesth/"> Department of Anesthesiology</A>, <A HREF="http://www.washington.edu/">University of Washington</A><LI> <A HREF="http://www.stat.washington.edu:80/madigan/">David Madigan</a>, <A HREF="http://www.stat.washington.edu/">Department of Statistics</A>, <A HREF="http://www.washington.edu/">University of Washington</A></UL><hr>Paper references:<UL><LI> Hanks, Steve, David Madigan, Jonathan Gavrin<br><A HREF="ftp:ftp.cs.washington.edu/pub/ai/endogenous-uai95.ps.Z">Probabilistic Temporal Reasoning with Endogenous Change</A><br>Proceedings <I>Uncertainty in AI</I> 1995.</UL><hr><address> hanks@cs.washington.edu</address> </body></html>⌨️ 快捷键说明
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