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Date: Tue, 10 Dec 1996 15:17:46 GMT
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Probabilistic Temporal Reasoning
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<h3>Probabilistic Temporal Reasoning</h3>

Developing models of temporal reasoning (essentially, 
reasoning about dynamical systems) is just about as old as AI
itself, and has been tackled using monotonic and non-monotonic
logical frameworks, and more recently using probabilistic models.

 <P>

We are working on a probabilistic model that particularly addresses
issues concerning <EM>endogenous change</EM>---situations in which 
the system changes state but not as a result of exogenous forces 
applied to the system.    In our domain---medical prediction, diagnosis, 
and treatment decisions---an exogenous event would be a planned 
treatment or test, and an endogenous event would be something like 
internal bleeding causing vital signs to destabilize.   We are working
on models that can be easily assessed from a human expert.

 <P>

Another goal of the project is to understand the difference between 
the way Statisticians and Computer Scientists have approached the 
problem of temporal reasoning, and to say something interesting 
about causality in the process.

 <P>
Other members of the team are:
<UL>
<LI> <A HREF="http://www.stat.washington.edu:80/aumann/">Craig Aumann</A>, 
      <A HREF="http://www.stat.washington.edu/">Department of Statistics</A>,
      <A HREF="http://www.washington.edu/">University of Washington</A>
<LI> Jonathan Gavrin, 
     <A HREF="http://weber.u.washington.edu/~anesth/">
         Department of Anesthesiology</A>, 
     <A HREF="http://www.washington.edu/">University of Washington</A>
<LI> <A HREF="http://www.stat.washington.edu:80/madigan/">David Madigan</a>, 
      <A HREF="http://www.stat.washington.edu/">Department of Statistics</A>,
      <A HREF="http://www.washington.edu/">University of Washington</A>
</UL>

<hr>

Paper references:
<UL>
<LI>  Hanks, Steve,  David Madigan, Jonathan Gavrin
<br>
<A HREF="ftp:ftp.cs.washington.edu/pub/ai/endogenous-uai95.ps.Z">
Probabilistic Temporal Reasoning with Endogenous Change
</A>
<br>
Proceedings <I>Uncertainty in AI</I> 1995.
</UL>

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[e-mail]
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