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Date: Tue, 10 Dec 1996 15:07:48 GMTServer: NCSA/1.4.2Content-type: text/htmlLast-modified: Mon, 25 Sep 1995 07:37:18 GMTContent-length: 6002<html><head><title>Flawed Study of Ph.D. Production</title></head><body bgcolor="#ffffff" text="#000070"><h1>Massy-Goldman report alleging 50% CSE Ph.D. overproductionto be re-issued due to flawed data</h1><h3>July 28, 1995</h3><p><hr><p>During the first two weeks of July, a study of Ph.D. productionby William F. Massy of Stanford and Charles A. Goldman of RANDreceived widespread attention, stimulated by a New York Timesarticle.<p>Both the study and the article turn out to have been badlyflawed.<h3>The study</h3>On behalf of the Computing Research Association, Jeffrey D. Ullmanfrom Stanford and Robert W. Ritchie from Hewlett-Packard met withBill Massy, the senior author of the study,during the last week of July. Here is Ullman's report,edited slightly for clarity:<blockquote>It turns out that Bill Massy has just discovered that a criticalinput parameter to his model -- the total number of doctoratesemployed in the field -- was incorrect for CS.<p>Table 1.7 (p. 1-32 of the report) has 5,376 for this number.<p>Historical data from NSF, though, shows a steady increase to 19,800for the two years prior to the year used as input data, and 5,376 forthat year.The anomaly was due to a change in definition by those in NSFresponsible for collecting the data.<p>Massy has concluded that the figureof 5,376 is inappropriate for use in his model. He has decidedto extrapolate thehistorical data to a figure of 21,000 instead.<p>As a result, CS now shows an employment gap of only 3.6% instead ofthe published 50.3%. This number is one of the lowest of all fields,and suggests that the projections of 15 years ago calling for abuildup to 1000 CS Ph.D.s/year are in remarkable agreement withthe revised Massy-Goldman estimate of current demand.<p>Massy says he is going to release the corrections to everyone whoreceived the report. We also expect Massy and Goldman to issue afull, revised report shortly.</blockquote>It's worth noting that the Massy-Goldman report was just that -- atechnical report, totally unrefereed and replete with numerousobvious typographical errors in addition to the methodologicalglitch in the case of computer science and engineering.<h3>The New York Times article</h3>The New York Times article leads one to believe thatthe Massy-Goldman study was a "survey," when in factthe study involves a first-order Markov model.The study is perfectly clear on this point, so themisleading statements are solely due to the New YorkTimes reporter.<p>A statement from the article such as:<blockquote>"The surplus of doctoralcomputer science degrees currently awarded over the number ofthose who get desirable jobs in their field is 50.3 percent ..."</blockquote>is thus doubly flawed:<ul><li>Because of flaws in the study, the 50.3% should be 3.6%.<p><li>Because of flaws in the article, the reader would concludethat the study surveys the experiences of current graduates,when in fact it uses a first-order Markov model to predictthe future based upon a boatload of assumptions.</ul>(Needless to say, a properly constructed, validated, andparameterized model could be useful as a policy planningvehicle.)<h3>What is a "desirable job?"</h3>The question of what constitutes "fit employment" for a Ph.D. isan interesting one. Here is a comment fromForest Baskett, Vice President and Chief Technology Officerfor Silicon Graphics:<blockquote>"My company hires quite a number of Ph.D.s. While it isprobably true that they don't have "jobs that really require a Ph.D."[language from the Massy-Goldman study],they tend to be better employees (by a lot) in those jobs than lesswell educated and less well (academically) trained people we have alsohired. These people are now moving up through our organization andbecoming the technical and business leaders of the company. I believethat this is a perfectly legitimate role and goal for Ph.D. productioneven if it is not uppermost in the minds of professors in charge of thatproduction."</blockquote>Baskett goes on to say:<blockquote>"A trend I do find disturbing and counterproductive is the trend towardpostdoctoral fellows in computer science. In my mind, opportunitiesfor postdoctoral fellowships allow students to further postpone themaking of hard career choices. This potential for procrastination alsobreaks the feedback loop from students to professors about the"relevance" of their education, both in courses and research projects.When students know that they have to actually get a career-defining jobat the end of their degree program and they know that academic jobs areno longer easy to find, those students will, I believe, moreeffectively vote with their feet about courses and research areas in away that better couples what's happening in our industry to what'shappening in our university departments. We have seen this loss ofcoupling happen in other areas. Physics and life sciences come tomind.<p>"We've had a fabulous 30 year history of great relations between ourcomputer science departments and a vibrant industry withoutpostdoctoral fellows gumming up the works. One of the reasons has beenthat the Ph.D.s who have gone into industry have been young and energeticand fearless. They have often quickly realized that they were stilldoing their research. In our fast moving industry, it also often justhappened to be product development. This is a good model. Let's notbreak it."</blockquote>Baskett raises important questions concerning the <i>nature</i>of Ph.D. education which deserve serious thought.<p><hr><ul><li><!WA0><a href="http://www.cs.washington.edu/homes/lazowska/cra">Computing Research: Driving InformationTechnology and the Information Industry Forward</a><p><li><!WA1><a href="http://cra.org">Computing ResearchAssociation</a> home page</ul></body><address><hr><!WA2><a href="mailto:lazowska@cs.washington.edu">lazowska@cs.washington.edu</a></address></html>⌨️ 快捷键说明
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