83771

神经网络昆斯林的新闻组分类2006

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From: [e-mail] (Isaac Kuo)
Newsgroups: talk.religion.misc,talk.politics.misc,sci.skeptic
Subject: Re: Who's next?  Mormons and Jews?
Message-ID: <1r7os6$[e-mail]>
Date: 23 Apr 93 03:47:18 GMT
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In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Red Herring) writes:
>    The FBI claims, on the basis of their intelligence reports,
>    that BD's had no plans to commit suecide.  They, btw, had bugged the 
>    place and were listening to BD's conversations till the very end.
>
>    Koresh's attorney claims that, based on some 30 hours he spent
>    talking to his client and others in the compound, he saw no
>    indication that BD's were contemplating suecide.
>
>    The survivors claim it was not a suecide.

It's not clear that more than one of the survivors made this claim.  It is
clear that at least one of the survivors made the contradictory claim that
BD members had started the fire.

>    BD's were not contemplating suecide, and there is no reason 
>    to believe they committed one.

No reason?  How about these two:

1.  Some of the survivors claimed that BD members poured fuel along the
	corridors and set fire to it.  The speed at which the fire spread
	is not inconsistent with this claim.

2.  There was certainly a fire which killed most of the people in the compound.
	There is a very very good possibility that the FBI did not start this
	fire.  This is a good reason to believe that the BD's did.

3.  Even if the BD's were not contemplating suicide, it is very possible that
	David Koresh was convinced (and thus convinced the others) that this
	was not suicide.  It was the fulfilment of a profecy of some sort.

There are three possibilities other than the BD's self destruction:

A.  They are not dead, but escaped via bunker,etc.  From reports of the
	inadequacies of the tunnels and the bodies found, I would rate this
	as highly unlikely.

B.  The fire was started by an FBI accident.  This is possible, but it would be
	foolish of us to declare this outright until more evidence can back it.
	Sure, it's possible that the armored vehicle knocked down a lantern
	which started the fire (why was there a lit lantern in the middle of
	the day near the edge of the complex?).  It's anecdotal evidence that
	has been contradicted by other escapees.

C.  The fire was started on purpose by the FBI.  This has been suggested by
	some on the NET, and I would rate this possibility as utterly
	ludicrous.  This is what we in "sci.skeptic" would call an
	"extraordinary claim" and won't bother refuting unless someone gives
	any good evidence to back it up.

So we are left with two reasonable possibilities.  That the fire was an FBI
accident and that the fire was started by the BD.  I find the latter more
likely based on the evidence I've seen so far.
-- 
*Isaac Kuo ([e-mail])	*       ___
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