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Subject: The Art of Computer Game Design- Chapter 7
Date: Sat, 15 Jan 2005 13:07:25 +0800
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G>
<UL>
<DIV align=3Dright>
<P><A name=3Dtop></A><FONT size=3D+3>The Future of Computer=20
Games<BR></FONT><B>Chapter Seven</B></P></DIV></UL>
<P>
<HR width=3D"100%">
<P></P>
<CENTER>
<TABLE cellPadding=3D10>
<TBODY>
<TR vAlign=3Dtop align=3Dleft>
<TD width=3D"50%"><B><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/peabody/game-book/Chapter7.html#=
FAD OR">FAD=20
OR FIXTURE?<BR></A><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/peabody/game-book/Chapter7.html#=
THE TECHNOLOGICAL">THE=20
TECHNOLOGICAL EXTRAPOLATION<BR></A><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/peabody/game-book/Chapter7.html#=
ASSESSMENT: TECHNOLOGICAL">ASSESSMENT:=20
TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION<BR></A><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/peabody/game-book/Chapter7.html#=
THE NATURE OF">THE=20
NATURE OF CHANGE<BR></A><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/peabody/game-book/Chapter7.html#=
The Mass">The=20
Mass Market<BR></A><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/peabody/game-book/Chapter7.html#=
The Flowering of">The=20
Flowering of Heterogeneity<BR></A><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/peabody/game-book/Chapter7.html#=
CONCLUSIONS">CONCLUSIONS</A></B></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></CENTER>
<UL>
<P><B><FONT size=3D+2>I</FONT></B>n this book, I have explored =
computer games=20
from a number of angles. I have presented my claim that computer games =
constitute an as-yet untapped art form. Implicit in this claim is the =
hope=20
that this art form will someday be tapped. Unfortunately, history =
bears out=20
the fears of cynics more often than the hopes of dreamers. I must =
therefore=20
separate hopes from predictions. Where are computer games going? How =
will they=20
change in the years to come? Will we see them emerge as a true art =
form? There=20
are a number of divergent trends apparent now; analysis of them is =
complicated=20
by conflicting interpretations of the current state of computer game =
design. I=20
shall begin by addressing the most commonly cited arguments, and =
proceed to=20
the framework I prefer. <FONT size=3D-1><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/peabody/game-book/Chapter7.html#=
top">Top</A></FONT></P>
<P><A name=3D"FAD OR"></A><B>FAD OR FIXTURE?</B></P>
<P>The first and most important question concerns the very survival of =
the=20
computer games industry. One school of thought maintains that computer =
games=20
are merely a fad, a temporary infatuation that will quickly pass when =
their=20
novelty value is exhausted. Proponents of this view compare the =
computer game=20
to other fads that swept into society with equal force. They maintain =
that=20
computer games lack sufficient fundamental appeal to insure any =
staying power.=20
Eventually, these people say, computer games will go the way of the =
hula=20
hoop.</P>
<P>This line of thought is breezily rejected by all members of the =
industry,=20
but I fear that the confidence people express is little more than the =
Titanic=20
syndrome---the confidence that arises from mere size. They tend to =
blindly=20
extrapolate into the future the astounding growth rates we have =
experienced in=20
the past. It is certainly hard to give credence to doomsayers when the =
curve=20
of growth slopes upward so steeply. However, few industry optimists =
can=20
provide justification for their extrapolations. Just because the =
industry=20
doubled in 1982 does not mean that it will double in 1983 or 1984. =
Indeed, it=20
cannot continue to annually double much longer; if it did, only eleven =
years?time would be needed for Atari alone to engulf the entire Gross =
National=20
Product like some monstrous PAC-MAN.</P>
<P>Furthermore, size alone generates negative forces that will =
certainly=20
reduce the growth rate. In the simple days of the seventies, when =
computer=20
games were counted by the thousands rather than the millions, nobody =
much=20
cared about their effects because they were a minor component of our =
society.=20
But now, they are everywhere. They are such a powerful force that they =
are=20
affecting society in such a way as to generate negative feedback. We =
now have=20
a backlash developing against computer games, with ordinances against =
arcades=20
popping up all over the country. Parents are beginning to restrict =
their=20
children=92s access to the games. Editorialists warn against the dire =
effects of=20
playing the games. Already several preliminary studies have been =
undertaken to=20
determine the effects of computer games on children; so far, the =
as-yet=20
speculative results have been mildly favorable, but the day will =
certainly=20
come when the crap game we call research comes up snakeyes, and a =
blockbuster=20
report is issued demonstrating that computer games cause cancer in =
laboratory=20
rats.</P>
<P>Bigger critters than Atari have bitten the dust; bigger industries =
than=20
ours have shriveled and died. Size and past success are no guarantee =
of=20
permanence. We need substantive reasons for confidence in the future =
rather=20
than simple extrapolations of past history. I am convinced that =
substantive=20
reasons for optimism exist; the full presentation of my reasoning will =
come=20
later in this chapter. For now let me say that computer games satisfy =
a=20
fundamental desire for active recreation, and as such are assured of a =
bright=20
future. <FONT size=3D-1><A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/peabody/game-book/Chapter7.html#=
top">Top</A></FONT></P>
<P><A name=3D"THE TECHNOLOGICAL"></A><B>THE TECHNOLOGICAL =
EXTRAPOLATION</B></P>
<P>The most commonly cited future for computer games is the =
technological=20
extrapolation. Adherents of this school point to the undeniably steady =
march=20
of technology and the rapid improvements that we have seen in the =
hardware for=20
delivering games. They then extrapolate these trends directly to =
project a=20
future populated by supercomputers with fabulous games chock-full of=20
unbelievable graphics and incredibly realistic experiences. These =
people=20
emphasize technological factors as the primary agents of change. They =
claim=20
that the big breakthroughs will come with the use of bigger and faster =
processors, megabytes of RAM, new languages, and better display =
hardware.=20
Holography, trackballs, laserdisks, body sensors-these are the coin of =
the=20
realm among the technological extrapolators.</P>
<P>I cast a jaded eye on such predictions. This is the same line of =
thought=20
that extrapolated computer development in the late 60=92s to predict =
ever-larger,=20
ever-faster mainframes as the primary avenues of development in the =
computer=20
industry for the 70=92s. Computers did indeed become larger in that =
decade, but=20
the development of larger computers was not the dominant event of the =
70=92s.=20
Instead, the maturation of minicomputers and the genesis of =
microcomputers=20
were the major developments of the 70=92s. The extrapolators never =
foresaw the=20
coming of microcomputers, because micros didn=92t fit into their =
"bigger and=20
better" extrapolations.</P>
<P>I do not deny that technology will improve; it will. The real issue =
is not=20
whether or not technology will improve, but whether or not =
technological=20
limitations are the primary constraints on the game designer. I do not =
deny=20
that technological limitations do impose severe constraints on all =
computer=20
games, and I readily acknowledge that technological advances will =
remove many=20
of these constraints. Thus, technological immaturity, the weakness of =
current=20
8-bit, 64K, 1 MHz systems---is a crippling limitation. Yet I maintain =
that=20
artistic immaturity is an even more crippling limitation.</P>
<P>Consider two extreme hypothetical future worlds. The first world =
has no=20
technological development and the second world has no artistic =
development. In=20
the first world I am stuck with an Atari 800 as my sole medium for =
game=20
design. This does not worry me too much; I could explore the =
possibilities of=20
this machine for five or ten years before beginning to feel trapped. =
The=20
second world, though, is a bleak place indeed; I am doomed to write=20
ever-fancier variations on STAR RAIDERS and BREAKOUT, with more =
colorful=20
explosions, snazzier sounds, and 3-D photon torpedoes, but never =
anything new=20
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