burglar-alarm-net.lisp.txt

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#|
The following code represents the burglar alarm Bayes network from
Chapter 14 of Russell & Norvig, 2nd Edition.  This network representation
is used in the corresponding Bayes net code found in this directory.

The conditional probability tables consist of the values listed here
(along with the probabilities of the corresponding complementary events):

P(Burglary = true) = 0.001    (=> P(Burglary = false) = 0.999)
P(Earthquake = true) = 0.002  (=> P(Earthquake = false) = 0.998)

P(Alarm = true | Burglary = true, Earthquake = true) = 0.95
P(Alarm = true | Burglary = true, Earthquake = false) = 0.94
P(Alarm = true | Burglary = false, Earthquake = true) = 0.29
P(Alarm = true | Burglary = false, Earthquake = false) = 0.001

P(JohnCalls = true | Alarm = true) = 0.90
P(JohnCalls = true | Alarm = false) = 0.05

P(MaryCalls = true | Alarm = true) = 0.70
P(MaryCalls = true | Alarm = false) = 0.01
|#

(setf *burglar-alarm-net*
      '((MaryCalls (true false)
		   (Alarm)
		   ((true) 0.70 0.30)
		   ((false) 0.01 0.99))
	(JohnCalls (true false)
		   (Alarm)
		   ((true) 0.90 0.10)
		   ((false) 0.05 0.95))
	(Alarm (true false)
	       (Burglary Earthquake)
	       ((true true) 0.95 0.05)
	       ((true false) 0.94 0.06)
	       ((false true) 0.29 0.71)
	       ((false false) 0.001 0.999))
	(Burglary (true false)
		  ()
		  (0.001 0.999))
	(Earthquake (true false)
		    ()
		    (0.002 0.998))
	))