chemf123.out

NASA 开发使用的一个专家系统

The path of the multiplier effect of housing 
is as follows:
The multiplier effect of the path of housing
to chlorine-industry-demand is 0
The multiplier effect of the path of housing 
to chlorine-price is 0.0044
The multiplier effect of the path of housing 
to chlorine-chemfirm-demand is 1.5
The multiplier effect of the path of housing 
to chlorine-chemfirm-profit is 1.5044
Do you wish to continue analyzing scenarios?
The valid choice is yes or no.
yes
Do you wish to start over after resetting the initial facts
or to continue while keeping the current multiplier values?
The valid choice is s for start-over or c for continue.
c
Where has a change in environmental or internal
control occurred?
The valid choices are housing, pulp-paper, crudeoil, 
chlor-new-capacity, na-new-capacity, other-mfg-cost
chlor-industry-demand, na-industry-demand.
crudeoil
What is the price of crude oil per barrel? DO NOT enter $ sign.
32
Assume that whenever the price of crude oil per barrel goes up above $30
in near future, it becomes economically cheaper to produce
caustic soda by soda ash mining products.  Therefore, the 
crude oil price increase affects the chemfirm-operating profit in two ways.
First, the crude oil price increases the costs of production 
as well as caustic-soda-new-capacity.  The combined effect of
crude-oil-price increase is shown in two stages.  The first 
stage affects the cost of production, and the second stage
affects the increase in caustic-soda-new-capacity by means
of soda ash.  The result through the two stages is shown as
the cumulative multipler effect of caustic-soda-new-capacity
on chemfirm-operating profit to indicate that the second stage effect is
through caustic-soda-new-capacity increase even though it
originated from the increase in crude-oil-price.
When the second stage starts by asking the the multiplier effect
of caustic-soda-new-capacity to caustic-soda-industry-capacity,
answer it by entering 1.0 or the default value.
What is the multiplier effect of crude-oil to chlorine-
price?  Enter 0.029 for default.
0.5
What is the multiplier effect of crude oil to caustic soda
price?  Enter 1.79 for default.
2
What is the multiplier effect of crude oil to chemfirm-cost
per ton of chlor-alkali?  Enter 9.34 for default.
10
The multiplier effect of crude oil to chemfirm-operating profit
is 7.5 with time lag of 0 months.
The cumulative multiplier effect of all input changes to
chemfirm-operating profit is 11.283
The path of the multiplier effect of crudeoil
is as follows:
The multiplier effect of the path of crudeoil
to chemfirm-chlorine-profit is -4.5
The multiplier effect of the path of crudeoil
to chlorine-price is 0.5
The multiplier effect of the path of crudeoil
to caustic-soda-price is 2
The multiplier effect of the path of crudeoil
to chemfirm-caustic-soda-profit is 12
What is the multiplier effect of caustic-soda-new-capacity
to caustic-soda-industry-capacity?  Enter 1.0 for default.
Enter 1.0 for the second stage effect of crude oil price above $30
1
The multiplier effect of caustic-soda-new-capacity 
to chemfirm-operating profit is -0.0034
 with time lag of 12 months.
The cumulative multiplier effect of all input changes to
chemfirm-operating profit is -0.0383622
The path of the multiplier effect of caustic-soda-new-capacity
with time lag is as follows:
The multiplier effect of caustic-soda-new-capacity to
caustic-soda-industry-capacity is 1
with time lag of 0 months.
The multiplier effect of the path of caustic-soda-new-capacity
to caustic-soda-price is -0.0034
with time lag of 12 months.
The multiplier effect of the path of caustic-soda-new-capacity
to chemfirm-caustic-soda-profit is -0.0034
with time lag of 12 months.
Do you wish to continue analyzing scenarios?
The valid choice is yes or no.
no 
You have chosen to end the analysis of chemfirm causal mapping.
Have a nice day, (Chem Firm, II) .
CLIPS> 
(clear)
CLIPS> y
y
CLIPS> (load "C:/Clipscnf/CHEMFIRM.CLP")
Defining deftemplate: username
Defining deftemplate: cashflow
Defining deftemplate: link1
Defining deftemplate: link2
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Defining deffacts: links
Defining defrule: start-up +j
Defining defrule: start-chemfirm +j
Defining defrule: phase1-testing +j
Defining defrule: bad-response =j+j
Defining defrule: good-response =j+j+j
Defining defrule: start-housing +j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j
Defining defrule: start-pulp-paper +j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j
Defining defrule: start-crudeoil +j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j
Defining defrule: start-chlor-new-capacity +j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j
Defining defrule: start-na-new-capacity +j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j
Defining defrule: start-chlor-industry-demand +j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j
Defining defrule: start-na-industry-demand +j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j
Defining defrule: start-other-mfg-cost +j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j+j
Defining defrule: ask-continue +j
Defining defrule: good-yes-response =j+j
Defining defrule: good-no-response =j+j+j
Redefining defrule: bad-response =j+j
TRUE
CLIPS> (reset)
CLIPS> (run)
WELCOME TO EXPERT SYSTEM PROGRAM for the ANALYSIS 
of COMPREHENSIVE SITUATION MAPPING of CHEMFIRM!
The expert system program uses CLIPS version 6.0.
To execute program, simply load, reset, and run.
In all your response, please remember that CLIPS treats
the answer in a case-sensitive manner.  Hence, please
choose the answer as EXACT WORD or NUMBER as it appears
in the valid choice.
A WORD of CAUTION: Many questions in this program
does not include error checking for invalid responses.
An invalid choice entry can cause the program to return
to the beginning of the program.
DISCLAIMER
The codes in this program that the authors present
are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  As this program
is not for a commercial application but for a personal use,
the users must observe the following warning:
THIS PROGRAM SHOULD NOT BE USED IN ANY APPLICATION
WHERE A SERIOUS RISK OF LOSS IS POSSIBLE.
The authors make no guarantee as to bugs or defects.
Any user shall not hold the authors of the code as well as
Joseph Giarratano, Gary Riley, and PWS Publishing Company
responsible if the program does not work as claimed by
the authors.
What is the user's (your) name?
Chem Firm, III
Where has a change in environmental or internal
control occurred?
The valid choices are housing, pulp-paper, crudeoil, 
chlor-new-capacity, na-new-capacity, other-mfg-cost
chlor-industry-demand, na-industry-demand.
chlor-new-capacity
What is the multiplier effect of chlorine-new-capacity
to chlorine-industry-capacity?  Enter 1.0 for default.
1
The multiplier effect of chlorine-new-capacity 
to chemfirm-operating profit is -0.02257
 with time lag of 12 months.
The cumulative multiplier effect of all input changes to
chemfirm-operating profit is -0.02257
The path of the multiplier effect of 
chlor-new-chemfirm-capacity with time lag is as follows:
The multiplier effect of the path of chlorine-new-capacity
to chlorine-industry-capacity is 1
with time lag of 0 months.
The multiplier effect of the path of chlorine-new-capacity
to chlorine-price with 12 months
time lag is 0.981
The multiplier effect of the path of chlorine-new-capacity
to caustic-soda-industry-capacity is 1.05
with time lag of 0 months.
The multiplier effect of the path of chlorine-new-capacity
to caustic-soda-price is -0.00357
with time lag of 12 months.
The multiplier effect of the path of chlorine-new-capacity
to chemfirm-chlorine-profit is -0.019
with time lag of 12 months.
The multiplier effect of the path of chlorine-new-capacity
to chemfirm-caustic-soda-profit is -0.00357
with time lag of 12 months.
Do you wish to continue analyzing scenarios?
The valid choice is yes or no.
yes
Do you wish to start over after resetting the initial facts
or to continue while keeping the current multiplier values?
The valid choice is s for start-over or c for continue.
s
WELCOME TO EXPERT SYSTEM PROGRAM for the ANALYSIS 
of COMPREHENSIVE SITUATION MAPPING of CHEMFIRM!
The expert system program uses CLIPS version 6.0.
To execute program, simply load, reset, and run.
In all your response, please remember that CLIPS treats
the answer in a case-sensitive manner.  Hence, please
choose the answer as EXACT WORD or NUMBER as it appears
in the valid choice.
A WORD of CAUTION: Many questions in this program
does not include error checking for invalid responses.
An invalid choice entry can cause the program to return
to the beginning of the program.
DISCLAIMER
The codes in this program that the authors present
are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  As this program
is not for a commercial application but for a personal use,
the users must observe the following warning:
THIS PROGRAM SHOULD NOT BE USED IN ANY APPLICATION
WHERE A SERIOUS RISK OF LOSS IS POSSIBLE.
The authors make no guarantee as to bugs or defects.
Any user shall not hold the authors of the code as well as
Joseph Giarratano, Gary Riley, and PWS Publishing Company
responsible if the program does not work as claimed by
the authors.
What is the user's (your) name?
Chem Firm, III
Where has a change in environmental or internal
control occurred?
The valid choices are housing, pulp-paper, crudeoil, 
chlor-new-capacity, na-new-capacity, other-mfg-cost
chlor-industry-demand, na-industry-demand.
housing
What is the multiplier effect of housing to chlorine
industry demand?  Enter 7.2 for default.
10
The multiplier effect of housing to chemfirm-operating profit
is 1.5044 with time lag of 0 months.
The cumulative multiplier effect of all input changes to
chemfirm-operating profit is 1.5044
The path of the multiplier effect of housing 
is as follows:
The multiplier effect of the path of housing
to chlorine-industry-demand is 0
The multiplier effect of the path of housing 
to chlorine-price is 0.0044
The multiplier effect of the path of housing 
to chlorine-chemfirm-demand is 1.5
The multiplier effect of the path of housing 
to chlorine-chemfirm-profit is 1.5044
Do you wish to continue analyzing scenarios?
The valid choice is yes or no.
no
You have chosen to end the analysis of chemfirm causal mapping.
Have a nice day, (Chem Firm, III) .
CLIPS> (exit)