acqclips.clp

NASA 开发使用的一个专家系统

;;; Acquisition Suitability Evaluation Program
;;; CLIPS Version 6.0 
;
;;; DISCLAIMER
;;; The codes in this program that the authors present are for 
;;; EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  As this program is not for a 
;;; commercial application but for a personal use, the users must 
;;; observe the following warning:  
;;; THIS PROGRAM SHOULD NOT BE USED IN ANY APPLICATION 
;;; WHERE A SERIOUS RISK OF LOSS IS POSSIBLE.
;;; The authors make no guarantee as to bugs or defects.  
;;; Any user shall not hold the authors of the code as well as 
;;; Joseph Giarratano, Gary Riley, and PWS Publishing Company 
;;; responsible if the program does not work as claimed by the authors.    
;
;;; To execute the program, simply load, reset, and run.
;
;;; Purpose of the Program: This expert system program evaluates a 
;;; potential target firm for its acquisition suitability based on 
;;; three group factors, environmental, managerial, and financial factors.
;
;;; Credit is acknowledged for P. Lyons (1994, Applying Expert System 
;;; Technology to Business), K. Palepu (1986,Predicting Takeover Targets:
;;; A Methodological & Empirical Analysis, Journal of Accounting and Economics),
;;; and other researchers who helped in studying the acquisition target 
;;; firm's characteristics.  
;
;;; The main contribution of this program is to extend P. Lyons's program and
;;; add more detailed analysis of the target firm for acquisition suitability.
;;; It also suggests areas of future research where expert system can assist
;;; in ways that are better than present traditional statistical models (such as
;;; logit model).  
;
;;; Using the user's input, the three group factors are further analyzed for a
;;; series of about a dozen questions for each of the three group factors.  Then,
;;; the program returns a suitability evaluation on 10 point scale,
;;; -2(not suitable at all), -1(feasible but not acceptable), 0(indifferent), 
;;; 1(feasible but not so attractive), 2(weakly attractive), 3(can be a good target),
;;; 4(good target), 5(very good target), 6(excellent target), 7(a "dream" target,
;;; why this firm has not been acquired yet is itself a future research issue).
;;; This point scale is subject to the programmer's subjective decision rule
;;; and can be further improved if an artificial intelligence such as neural
;;; nets are used to decide on the decision rule.  This learning process of 
;;; the neural nets, however, requires a substantial number of sample data,
;;; and the data availability necessitated the use of the neural nets for 
;;; later project.  The present program then call such neural nets for more
;;; accurate decision rule.  Moreover, in case of uncertain response or
;;; uncertain rule decision, fuzzy logic can help in treating the uncertain 
;;; probabilities and incorporate it in the expert system in order to enhance 
;;; the usefulness of the expert system.  
;
;;; The expert system can assist the acquisitions expert in systematic 
;;; approach to problem solving.  The overall effectiveness of this program 
;;; can be tested empirically using acquisition data and control firm sample.
;;; Further improvement of this program also requires the simultaneous 
;;; consideration of the acquiring firm's relative strength and desire for
;;; the acquisition.  This program leaves it for further development.  
;;; In this program, the acquiring firm is assumed to have all sufficient 
;;; resources and to be enthusiastic about acquiring the potential target firm. 
;;; One of the limitations of this program is that it requires the user to
;;; provide all the correct responses paying attention to the valid
;;; response choices and case-sensitivity in order to reach the end of the
;;; program and to get the recommendation of the program.  This limitation 
;;; could be circumvented by providing control rules to check for valid
;;; responses, but the large number of such rules had me not to provide
;;; such control rules.  Instead, the user is cautioned by initial message
;;; to watch for valid response.  Another limitation of greater importance
;;; is that all the questions selection and rule decision was based on my
;;; knowledge alone without consulting with a real acquisitions expert who
;;; has immense real-world experience in this area.  This problem should
;;; be dealt with in order to produce a real expert system. 
;
(deftemplate username
  (multislot name))  
(deftemplate targetname  
  (multislot name))
(deftemplate finalvalue
  (slot value))
(defrule start-up
   => 
   (printout t "WELCOME TO ACQUISITION EVALUATION EXPERT SYSTEM!"crlf)
   (printout t "This expert system, CLIPS Version 6.0, guides the user in " crlf)
   (printout t "evaluating the suitability of potential target firm." crlf)
   (printout t "In all your response, please remember that the answer "crlf)
   (printout t "is case-sensitive and choose the answer in exact "crlf)
   (printout t "number or word as it appears in the valid choice." crlf)
   (printout t "All the questions pertain to the target firm." crlf)
   
   (printout t "This expert system is written in clips 6.0 language" crlf)
   (printout t "and the program is made up of three phases." crlf)
   (printout t "If possible, please collect as many data as possible" crlf)
   (printout t "in order to know more about the target firm.  In addition,"crlf)
   (printout t "this expert system is designed to view biasedly a target firm"crlf)
   (printout t "with an unknown data as unfavorable acquisition target firm."crlf)
   
   (printout t "To execute the program, load and remember to reset before run."crlf)
   (printout t "A WORD OF CAUTION: MANY QUESTIONS IN THIS PROGRAM DO NOT CONTAIN"crlf)
   (printout t "ERROR CHECKING FOR INVALID RESPONSE. AN INVALID CHOICE ENTRY CAN"crlf)     
   (printout t "FORCE THE PROGRAM TO RETURN TO THE BEGINNING OF THE PROGRAM."crlf)
   
   (printout t "DISCLAIMER"crlf)
   (printout t "The codes in this program that the authors present"crlf)
   (printout t "are for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.  As this program"crlf)
   (printout t "is not for a commercial application but for a personal use,"crlf)
   (printout t "the users must observe the following warning:"crlf)
   (printout t "THIS PROGRAM SHOULD NOT BE USED IN ANY APPLICATION"crlf)
   (printout t "WHERE A SERIOUS RISK OF LOSS IS POSSIBLE."crlf)
   (printout t "The authors make no guarantee as to bugs or defects."crlf)
   (printout t "Any user shall not hold the authors of the code as well as"crlf)
   (printout t "Joseph Giarratano, Gary Riley, and PWS Publishing Company"crlf)
   (printout t "responsible if the program does not work as claimed by"crlf)
   (printout t "the authors."crlf)    
 
   (assert (phase environment)))
;Phase environment- asks the target firm's environmental factors
(defrule phase-1
 ?phase <- (phase environment)
   => (retract ?phase)
    (printout t "The first phase asks information on the target firm's"crlf)
    (printout t "environmental factors."crlf)
    (assert (question qe1)))
(defrule qe1
 ?question <- (question qe1)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Please classify the target firm's product life cycle."crlf)
    (printout t "The choices are 1-introduction,0-growth,2-mature,"crlf)
    (printout t "or 3-decline. Please choose 0,1,2,or 3 and one answer only."crlf)
    (assert (ae1 (read)))
    (assert (question qe2)))
(defrule qe2
 ?question <- (question qe2)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "How would you classify the target firm's competition?"crlf)
    (printout t "The valid choices are 1-oligopoly,3-perfect,2-monopolistic,"crlf)
    (printout t "or 0-monopoly. Please 0,1,2, or 3 and one answer only."crlf)
    (assert (ae2 (read)))
    (assert (question qe3)))
(defrule qe3
 ?question <- (question qe3)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "how would you evaluate the labor market for acquisition purpose?"crlf)
    (printout t "Please consider the labor relation,supply,wage,productivity,etc."crlf)
    (printout t "The valid choices are 4-excellent,3-good,2-fair,1-poor,"crlf)
    (printout t "or 0-verypoor. Please choose 0,1,2,3, or 4 and one answer only."crlf)
    (assert (ae3 (read)))
    (assert (question qe4)))
(defrule qe4
 ?question <- (question qe4)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Has at least one acquisition occurred in the target firm's"crlf)
    (printout t "industry during the last 12 months?" crlf)
    (printout t "The industry is identified by the first two digits of SIC."crlf)
    (printout t "The valid response is 3-yes,1-not applicable or unknown, or 0-no."crlf)
    (printout t "Please choose 0,1, or 3 and one answer only."crlf)
    (assert (ae4 (read)))
    (assert (question qe5)))
(defrule qe5
 ?question <- (question qe5)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Has there been a disturbance in the target firm's industry "crlf)
    (printout t "in the form of a new technology breakthrough?"crlf)
    (printout t "If so, how would you rate the impact?"crlf)
    (printout t "3-very severe, 2-significant,1-na(not applicable or unknown),"crlf)
    (printout t "or 0-no impact. Please choose 0,1,2, or 3 and one answer only."crlf)
    (printout t "The industry is identified by the first two digits of SIC."crlf)
    (assert (ae5 (read)))
    (assert (question qe6)))
(defrule qe6
 ?question <- (question qe6)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Was there any regulatory changes that can affect the target"crlf)
    (printout t "firm's industry-identified by the first two digits of SIC?"crlf)
    (printout t "If so, how would you rate the impact?"crlf)
    (printout t "The valid choice is 3-very unfavorable,2-unfavorable,"crlf)
    (printout t "1-na or unknown, or 0-favorable. Select 0,1,2, or 3 and one only."crlf)
    (assert (ae6 (read)))
    (assert (question qe7)))
(defrule qe7
 ?question <- (question qe7)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Do you expect that the line of business of the target firm" crlf)
    (printout t "will contribute synergistically after the acquisition?"crlf)
    (printout t "The valid response is 4-yes, 1-na, or 0-no." crlf)
    (printout t "Please remember to choose only one answer for all questions."crlf)
    (assert (ae7 (read)))
    (assert (question qe8)))
(defrule qe8
 ?question <- (question qe8)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Do you expect that there will be economies of scale after the acquisition?"crlf)
    (printout t "Please choose 4-yes, 1-na (not applicable or unknown),or 0-no."crlf)
    (assert (ae8 (read)))
    (assert (phase management)))
; The following rules pertain to the managerial factors of the target firm.
; Additional questions can be easily added in this phase as deemed to be helpful.
(defrule phase-2
 ?phase <- (phase management)
   => (retract ?phase)
    (printout t "The following questions pertain to information on the target firm's"crlf)
    (printout t "managerial factors such as corporate policies,cultures,etc."crlf)
    (printout t "Other helpful questions can be easily added as needed."crlf)
    (assert (question qm1)))
(defrule qm1
 ?question <- (question qm1)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "How is the target firm's cultures for the acquisition?"crlf)
    (printout t "3-synergistic,2-compatible,1-no impact or na, or 0-antagonistic."crlf)
    (printout t "The valid response is 3, 2, 1, or 0. Please choose only one choice."crlf)
    (assert (am1 (read)))
    (assert (question qm2)))
(defrule qm2
 ?question <- (question qm2)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Has there been an involuntary management succession of CEO or COO initiated"crlf)
    (printout t "by the Board of Directors of the target firm during the last 12 months?"crlf)
    (printout t "The valid response is 4-yes, 1-na(not applicable), or 0-no."crlf)
    (printout t "Please remember to choose only one answer for all questions." crlf)
    (assert (am2 (read)))
    (assert (question qm3)))
(defrule qm3
 ?question <- (question qm3)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Has the target firm been audited?"crlf)
    (printout t "If so, what was the audit opinion?"crlf)
    (printout t "The valid response is 3-adverse,2-qualified,1-unaudited,0-unqualified."crlf)
    (printout t "Please choose 3, 2, 1, or 0. One answer only."crlf)
    (assert (am3 (read)))
    (assert (question qm4)))
(defrule qm4
 ?question <- (question qm4)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "How would you rate the target firm's internal control?"crlf)
    (printout t "Internal control refers to the safeguarding of assets," crlf)
    (printout t "accurate systems maintenance, security of systems, etc."crlf)
    (printout t "The valid response is 3-very weak,2-weak,1-average, or 0-strong."crlf)
    (printout t "Please choose 3, 2, 1, or 0. Remember to choose one answer only."crlf)
    (assert (am4 (read)))
    (assert (question qm5)))
(defrule qm5
 ?question <- (question qm5)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Is the target firm involved in a lawsuit?"crlf)
    (printout t "If so, how would you anticipate the outcome in terms of"crlf)
    (printout t "amount and probability?"crlf)
    (printout t "The valid choice is 3-very unfavorable,2-unfavorable,"crlf)
    (printout t "1-immaterial or not applicable, or 0-favorable."crlf)
    (printout t "Please choose 3, 2, 1, or 0 and one answer only."crlf)
    (assert (am5 (read)))
    (assert (question qm6)))
(defrule qm6
 ?question <- (question qm6)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "How would you classify the target firm's managerial"crlf)
    (printout t "accounting choice decisions?"crlf)
    (printout t "The valid response is 4-income increasing(eg. FIFO),"crlf)
    (printout t "1-neutral or na, or 0-income decreasing(eg. LIFO)."crlf)
    (printout t "Please choose 4,1, or 0 and one answer only."crlf)
    (assert (am6 (read)))
    (assert (question qm7)))
(defrule qm7
 ?question <- (question qm7)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "Has there been a nonfinancial negative publicity such as"crlf)
    (printout t "product safety and inside trading against the target firm?"crlf)
    (printout t "The valid choice is 3-yes,1-na or unknown,or 0-no."crlf)
    (assert (am7 (read)))
    (assert (question qm8)))
(defrule qm8
 ?question <- (question qm8)
   => (retract ?question)
    (printout t "How would you characterize the target firm's budgeting policy?"crlf)
    (printout t "The vaild response is 3-synergistic with acquisition,2-acceptable,"crlf)
    (printout t "1-no effect or unknown,or 0-unacceptable. Please choose 3,2,1,or 0."crlf)
    (assert (am8 (read)))
    (assert (question qm9)))
(defrule qm9
 ?question <- (question qm9)