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<HTML><HEAD> <TITLE>BBS水木清华站∶精华区</TITLE></HEAD><BODY><CENTER><H1>BBS水木清华站∶精华区</H1></CENTER>发信人: linuxrat (叫我老鼠错不了), 信区: Linux <BR>标 题: Linux定位的新目标?[FWD] <BR>发信站: BBS 水木清华站 (Mon Jan 17 14:58:10 2000) <BR> <BR> 不知道我的标题是否理解有错. 哪位给纠正一下哦. :) <BR> URL: <A HREF="http://gartner3.gartnerweb.com/public/static/hotc/hc00085653.html">http://gartner3.gartnerweb.com/public/static/hotc/hc00085653.html</A> <BR>=====Begin======= <BR> Research Note <BR> Strategic Planning Assumption <BR> 11 January 2000 <BR> <BR> A New Approach to Linux Positioning: The Long View <BR> G. Weiss <BR> <BR> Hype states that Linux will overthrow NT. A more interesting scenario <BR> shows Linux reinvigorating the Unix market. <BR> _________________________________________________________________ <BR> <BR> Core Topic <BR> Unix and Midrange Server Vendors and Markets ~ Hardware & Operating <BR> Systems <BR> Key Issue <BR> How will Unix and midrange server vendors and markets evolve? <BR> Strategic Planning Assumptions <BR> By 2002, all four major Unix vendors (Sun Microsystems, <BR> Hewlett-Packard, IBM and Compaq Computer) will position Linux as the <BR> midrange Unix complement to their high-end server strategy but will <BR> not relinquish their positioning of Unix as the strategic enterprise <BR> mission-critical OS environment (0.7 probability). <BR> Through 2003, 90 percent of Linux server deployments will be on Intel <BR> IA-32 (rather than IA-64 or RISC) (0.8 probability). <BR> _________________________________________________________________ <BR> <BR> The Linux community wants to replace well-established OSs. It can be <BR> done, but enterprise planners take years to redesign, architect, <BR> redeploy and reconfigure systems and change vendor relationships. We <BR> fault the Linux community's claim that Linux will topple Microsoft. <BR> Instead, we present a scenario of accelerating Linux acceptance in <BR> mainstream corporate applications where resistance lingers (outside <BR> the "hot spots" in education, technical computing, consulting and <BR> specific-function network services). <BR> <BR> The Unix market spans a variety of user needs. We foresee a Unix/Linux <BR> OS continuum (see Note 1) including a vendor-specific Unix-branded <BR> segment (as today with Solaris, HP-UX, AIX, Tru64, etc.) focused on <BR> enterprise functionality, deep vendor support, extreme levels of <BR> scalability and mission criticality. At the other end of the market is <BR> a low-end "vendor-independent, open-source-driven GNU Linux" in which <BR> the OS and allied applications conform to GNU principles. This market <BR> focuses on appliance-style, shrink-wrapped "Unixlike" servers, many <BR> pre-configured and deployed in infrastructure services. This enables <BR> Linux to move upmarket as demand and technological maturity warrant. <BR> Parts of these markets are evolving and are wide open competitively. <BR> Linux, if allied to Unix, would reinvigorate Unix, especially in <BR> competitive bidding against Microsoft, in low-end and midrange markets <BR> sensitive to price and price/performance. Here, vendor-branded Unix <BR> and vendor-independent "Unix" could evolve to be nearly seamless, with <BR> common APIs, utilities and applications &#151; particularly on Intel <BR> architectures, which account for more than 90 percent of Linux <BR> deployments. The argument for strategic alignment of Unix and Linux <BR> follows. <BR> _________________________________________________________________ <BR> <BR> Note 1 <BR> <BR> Unix and Linux Compared <BR> <BR> The Unix and Linux Business Models: The Unix-branded vendor business <BR> model is based on high unique value (architectural and system <BR> enhancements for high availability, capacity on demand, quality of <BR> service, performance and scalability, disaster recovery, etc.). The <BR> market is characterized by low unit volume growth at high ASPs. The <BR> Linux business model is based on low vendor-unique value but pervasive <BR> use in the Internet fabric. High replication value comes from <BR> eliminating the high license fee "tax" associated with vastly <BR> replicated sameness. <BR> <BR> Common Unix/Linux Building Blocks: Posix, X Windows, C/C++, NFS, BIND, <BR> Sendmail, LDAP, FTP, Telnet, TCP/IP, Java, Apache, Netscape, Unix <BR> shells. <BR> <BR> Areas of Unix/Linux Divergence: Device drivers; server diagnostics and <BR> problem resolution; specific architectural enhancements for ccNUMA, <BR> clustering, high availability and failover; special OS functions such <BR> as capacity on demand, resource and workload management, and quality <BR> of service; OS partitioning and remote systems management. <BR> _________________________________________________________________ <BR> <BR> 1. Linux stalwarts have made it a credo that Linux is GNU (see Note <BR> 2), to differentiate Linux from fragmented and steeply licensed Unix <BR> originated with AT&T's ownership. However, GNU is too broad and <BR> far-reaching for broad vendor and ISV acceptance (e.g., because of <BR> issues involving patents and intellectual property rights). <BR> Compatibility with Unix is one of Linux's main attractions as a <BR> complementary strategy. <BR> _________________________________________________________________ <BR> <BR> Note 2 <BR> <BR> GNU <BR> <BR> GNU's Not Unix, or GNU, was invented by Richard Stallman. The reason <BR> for GNU is Stallman's goal of developing an entire OS environment in <BR> which the following principles apply: 1) freedom to run programs for <BR> any purpose, 2) freedom to modify the program with access to the <BR> source code, 3) freedom to redistribute copies of programs (gratis or <BR> for a fee) derived from the open source and 4) freedom to distribute <BR> modified versions of programs. <BR> _________________________________________________________________ <BR> <BR> 2. Linux fits where Unix hoped, but failed, to win: as a commodity OS <BR> for inexpensive Intel servers and desktops. It solves the enterprise <BR> need for budget-tight deployments (e.g., replicated sites, Internet <BR> nodes and embedded devices that can be easily scrapped, swapped and <BR> upgraded). <BR> <BR> 3. Linux has not yet emerged as a widespread application or high-end <BR> DBMS OS. Linux must show better scalability, performance and worldwide <BR> vendor platform support to attract ISVs. This requires ongoing vendor <BR> hardware enhancements and optimization. As a complementary Unix <BR> strategy, Linux has the opportunity to mature and yet not compete <BR> directly against incumbent Unix, thus satisfying the Unix vendors (see <BR> Note 3). As an example, three-tier ERP applications on Linux IA-32 <BR> Intel servers could be an alternative to NT, with the DBMS on Unix <BR> servers. <BR>
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