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<title>人工智能</title>
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<div style='text-align:right;position:absolute;top:92.0%;left:72.65%;
width:18.91%;height:3.0%'><span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";font-size:58%;mso-field-code:meta16'>100</span><span
style='font-size:58%;mso-special-format:lastCR;display:none'> </span></div>
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<div style='position:absolute;top:3.75%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:6.25%'><span
style='font-family:黑体;mso-ascii-font-family:黑体;mso-fareast-font-family:黑体;
font-size:133%'>7.1<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>不确定性</span> </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:10.75%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:4.75%'> </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:15.5%;left:5.05%;width:113.85%;height:5.25%'>不确定性是<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>(</span>人的常识推理中<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>)</span>普遍存在的<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>.
</span>表示人们对信念的强度<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'>. </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:20.75%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.25%'>不确定推理<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>:<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span>从不确定前提推出<span style='font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>(</span>不确定<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>)</span>结论的过程<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>. </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:26.25%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.25%'>概念论是表示不确定度的基本工具<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>. </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:31.5%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.25%'>不确定逻辑<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>(</span>概率逻辑<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>):<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span>经典逻辑<span style='font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> + </span>概率 </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:37.25%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:4.75%'> </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:41.75%;left:5.05%;width:98.5%;height:5.75%'>句子的概率<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>:<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span>句子取概率<span style='font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>(</span>真<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>)</span>值<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>.
</span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>p(</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:
symbol'><i>j</i></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>) </i></span><span
lang=ZH-CN style='mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'>表示句子</span><span lang=ZH-CN
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'> </span><span style='font-family:Symbol;
mso-char-type:symbol'><i>j</i></span><span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><i><span style="mso-spacerun:
yes"> </span></i></span>的概率<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>.</span> </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:47.0%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.75%'><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><span
style="mso-spacerun:
yes">
</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>p(</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:
symbol'><i>Øj</i></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>)=1-p(</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:
symbol'><i>j</i></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>)</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;display:none'> </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:52.75%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.25%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>P(P)=p1+p2 </i></span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:58.25%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.25%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>p(Q)=p1+p3 </i></span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:64.0%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:4.75%'>概率分布<i> </i></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:68.25%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.75%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>p(P </i></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>Ù</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i> Q)=p1 </i></span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:73.75%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.75%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>p(P </i></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>Ù</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i> </i></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:
Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>Ø</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i> Q0=p2 </i></span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:79.0%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.75%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>p(</i></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:
Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>Ø</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i> P </i></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>Ù</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i> Q)=p3 </i></span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:84.25%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.75%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>p( </i></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>Ø</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>P </i></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:
Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>Ù</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i> </i></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:
Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>Ø</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i> Q)=p4 </i></span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:89.75%;left:5.05%;width:94.94%;height:5.75%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>P, P </i></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>®</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i> Q |‡ Q</i></span></div>
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