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<div style='text-align:right;position:absolute;top:92.0%;left:72.65%;
width:18.91%;height:3.0%'><span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";font-size:58%;mso-field-code:meta16'>104</span><span
style='font-size:58%;mso-special-format:lastCR;display:none'> </span></div>
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<div style='position:absolute;top:5.0%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:5.25%'><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><span
style="mso-spacerun:
yes">
</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>p(P|Q)</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;display:none'> </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:9.75%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:5.75%'>记<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span><span style='font-family:Symbol;
mso-char-type:symbol'><i>l</i></span><span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><i> =def </i></span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:15.25%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:5.75%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i><span style="mso-spacerun:
yes">
</span>p(P|</i></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:
ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>Ø</i></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:
ZH-CN'><i> Q)<span style="mso-spacerun:
yes">
</span></i></span><i>似然率 </i></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:21.25%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:4.75%'> </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:25.75%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:5.75%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>O(Q|P)= </i></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>l</i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>O(Q)<span style="mso-spacerun:
yes">
</span>Bayes </i></span><i>公式</i> </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:32.0%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:4.75%'> </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:37.25%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:4.75%'> </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:42.25%;left:5.8%;width:94.38%;height:5.25%'>直观解释：<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>
</span>如何从<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'> </span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>Q </i></span>的先验奇数（在<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>
</span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>P </i></span>为真前）计算 </div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:47.5%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:5.25%'><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><span
style="mso-spacerun:
yes">
</span></span>（给定<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'> </span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>P </i></span><span
lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'>）</span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'> </span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>Q </i></span>后验奇数<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>. </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:52.5%;left:5.8%;width:93.44%;height:5.75%'><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><span
style="mso-spacerun:
yes">
</span></span>当<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'> </span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>P </i></span>真<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>,
</span>乘以<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'> </span><span style='font-family:Symbol;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>l</i></span><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><i>
</i></span>更新<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'> </span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>Q </i></span>的信念强度<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>(</span>奇数<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>). </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:57.75%;left:5.8%;width:83.89%;height:5.75%'><span
style='font-family:Symbol;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>l</i></span><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><i>
</i></span><span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span>当<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>
</span><span style='font-family:Symbol;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>l</i></span><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><i>=1,
P </i></span>为真对<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'> </span><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>Q </i></span>奇数没影响<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>;
Q </span>对<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'> P </span>独立<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>. </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:63.0%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:5.75%'><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span>当<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>
</span><span style='font-family:Symbol;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>l</i></span><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><i><1,
</i></span>减少<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'> Q </span>的强度<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>. </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:68.5%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:5.75%'><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span>当<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>
</span><span style='font-family:Symbol;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>l</i></span><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><i>>1,
</i></span>增加<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:
"Times New Roman"'> Q </span>的强度<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>. </span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:74.25%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:5.25%'><span
lang=EN-US style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'><i>p(Q):<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>p(Q)=O(Q)/(O(Q)+1) </i></span></div>
<div style='position:absolute;top:79.0%;left:5.8%;width:78.65%;height:5.75%'>主观概念<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>:<span
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span>由<span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'> </span><span style='font-family:
Symbol;mso-char-type:symbol'><i>l</i></span><span style='font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><i> </i></span>计算概率<span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>.</span><span
style='font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"'><i>
</i></span></div>
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